VIPLSATCracking LSAT makes you a VIP.

Logical Reasoning · Strengthen

PrepTest 140 · Section 2 · Question 4

Phase 1 (your first ~400 questions): read the guidance, then answer. No clock.

Step 1 · Pre-Question Guidance · read this first

Question type
Strengthen
The one idea it tests
If bad events after X happen at the normal background rate, then X is probably not causing them, and coincidence explains them.
The basic logic
The author says scary stories after an event can be pure coincidence because so many people go through that event. To strengthen, show that the problem shows up no more often right after the event than at any other comparable time. A matching baseline makes the Rooster harmless.
Tiny words that decide it
  • “no more likely”
  • “coincidence”
  • “even if”

Playground logic

Priya's top bun: the new hall passes are not causing bad test grades. Her patty: hundreds of kids use passes, so some bad grades will follow by chance. She strengthens it by showing bad grades are just as common in the week before a pass as in the week after.

Step 2 · The kid story

The Cursed Hall Pass

Kids started whispering that the new purple hall pass was cursed. Owen used it Monday and failed his spelling quiz Tuesday. Nadia used it and got a C in math. Marcus declared, 'The pass is cursed! Ban it!' Priya set down her juice box. 'Hundreds of kids use that pass every month. Some of them will get a bad grade the next day just by chance. Bad grades happen all the time.' Lulu got out her clipboard and checked the grade book. 'Kids got bad grades just as often the week before using the pass as the week after.' Priya smiled. 'Then the pass isn't cursed. It's just purple.' Mr. Whiskers, the class cat, sat on the pass and fell asleep.

Step 3 · Try the model question

Some students got bad grades soon after using the new hall pass. But even if that is true, it is no reason to worry. With hundreds of students using the pass, some will get bad grades by chance soon after.

Which fact, if true, would give Priya's argument the most support?

Choices

Step 4 · The courtroom tale

The Lucky Umbrella Suit

A customer sued an umbrella shop. 'Right after I bought their umbrella, I slipped on ice!' The shop's lawyer, Ms. Tran, stood. 'Your Honor, we sell ten thousand umbrellas each winter. Some buyers will slip soon after, purely by chance.' Judge Lee frowned. 'Can you prove that?' Ms. Tran handed over a chart. 'Customers slip just as often in the week before buying as in the week after.' The judge nodded. 'Then the umbrella is not the troublemaker. Winter is.' Mr. Whitfield, watching from the gallery, applauded quietly.

Step 5 · Work the real question

Open PrepTest 140, Section 2, Question 4 in your official copy from LSAC (for example in LawHub) and read it there.

Your answer

How to apply it

Find the top bun: worrying stories after some event are no cause for concern. Find the patty: so many people go through the event that some trouble will follow by chance. Then look for an answer showing the trouble is no more common right after the event than at a matching time without it. Skip answers about how serious the trouble is, about other products, or about changed circumstances.