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Logical Reasoning · Parallel Flaw

PrepTest 124 · Section 2 · Question 8

Phase 1 (your first ~400 questions): read the guidance, then answer. No clock.

Step 1 · Pre-Question Guidance · read this first

Question type
Parallel Flaw
The one idea it tests
An average rate does not make an event 'due' just because it has not happened for a while. Treating independent chances as if they build up over time is the flaw to match.
The basic logic
The original uses an average frequency to say that a long gap since the last event raises the chance of the next one. X-ray the bones: average rate, then a long stretch without the event, then the claim that the event is now more likely. The matching answer makes the same 'it's overdue' move in a different setting.
Tiny words that decide it
  • “average”
  • “every”
  • “so”
  • “chances”

Playground logic

Marcus says the ice cream truck comes once a week on average, so after ten days without it, today is extra likely. Same bones in a twin: pop quizzes come every two weeks on average, three quiet weeks mean a quiz is 'due'. Both treat an average like a schedule that owes you.

Step 2 · The kid story

The Overdue Ice Cream Truck

Marcus sat on the curb with a dollar in his fist. 'The ice cream truck comes down our street once every seven days, on average. It has not come in ten days. So it is extra likely to come today. It owes us.' Tommy nodded and hid a lollipop just in case. Lulu flipped her clipboard. 'An average is not a promise, Marcus. The truck doesn't know how long it's been.' Owen laughed. 'That's like saying Ms. Rivera gives a pop quiz every two weeks on average, so after three quiet weeks, a quiz tomorrow is extra likely.' Priya sipped her juice box. 'Exactly the same mistake. Waiting longer doesn't make the next one more likely.' The truck did not come. Marcus ate Tommy's lollipop instead.

Step 3 · Try the model question

Marcus: On average, the ice cream truck visits our street once every seven days. It has not come for ten days. So the chance that it comes today is higher than usual.

Which choice shows reasoning that goes wrong in the same way as Marcus's?

Choices

Step 4 · The courtroom tale

The Case of the Overdue Raffle

In a fictional county fair dispute, a man sued because he had bought a raffle ticket every week for a year without winning. 'The average player wins once every twenty weeks,' his lawyer argued. 'He has gone fifty-two weeks. He is overdue! The fair owes him better odds.' Mr. Whitfield rose for the fair. 'Your Honor, each week's drawing is fresh. The hat does not remember who lost last week. An average tells you how often things happen across many weeks, not that someone is due.' Judge Okafor nodded. 'The odds do not build up like a savings account. Case dismissed.' The man bought another ticket on the way out.

Step 5 · Work the real question

Open PrepTest 124, Section 2, Question 8 in your official copy from LSAC (for example in LawHub) and read it there.

Your answer

How to apply it

X-ray the original: an average frequency, a stretch without the event, and the conclusion that the event's chance has gone up. Write those bones in one line. Then test each choice for the same three bones in the same order, ending with an 'overdue' conclusion. Reject choices that use averages in a different way or that commit a different flaw, even if they share the topic of chance.