PrepTest 131 · Section 2 · Question 4

The Rainmaker Hamster

Marcus kept a chart of how many hours Peanut, the class hamster, spent on his wheel. Ms. Rivera had the class chart the weather too. Marcus compared the two charts and gasped. 'The week Peanut ran the most was the rainiest week of the whole month!' He slammed his notebook shut. 'It is clear. Peanut's running caused the rain.' Owen laughed so hard milk almost came out of his nose. Priya calmly finished her juice box. 'Marcus, two things happened in the same week. That is all your chart shows.' 'But they matched perfectly!' 'So does the rooster crowing and the sun coming up,' said Priya. 'Maybe the rain kept us inside, so we woke Peanut up more. Or maybe it is a coincidence.' Marcus looked at Peanut. Peanut kept running.

Marcus: My charts show that the week our hamster ran the most on his wheel was also the rainiest week of the month. So it is clear that the hamster's running caused the rain that week.

Marcus's reasoning is most open to which one of the following criticisms?

The Bell Tower Trial

A town sued the bell ringer for causing the summer heat wave. The prosecutor waved a chart. 'Your Honor, in the summer he rang the bell twice as often, and that same summer was the hottest in years. Clearly the ringing heated the town!' Mr. Whitfield rose, adjusting his suspenders. 'Your Honor, two things happened in the same season. That is all. Did the ringing cause the heat? Did the heat bring more tourists, who asked for more ringing? Or is it plain chance?' The judge put down her pen. 'Counselor, a match on a calendar is not a confession.' Case dismissed. The bell rang, very politely.