Logical Reasoning · Flaw

PrepTest 102 · Section 2 · Question 9

Phase 1 (your first ~400 questions): read the guidance, then answer. No clock.

Step 1 · Pre-Question Guidance · read this first

Question type

Flaw

The one idea it tests

If people heard a warning and protected themselves, a small amount of harm does not prove the warning was fake.

The basic logic

Look for a conclusion that a warning was bogus, supported only by how little damage happened. Ask: did the warning itself cause people to take steps that kept the damage low? If the argument never considers that, it has ignored the most obvious other explanation.

Tiny words that decide it

“clearly”
“only”
“so”
“however”

Playground logic

Marcus's patty: Aunt Rosa warned of frost, sold a pile of plant blankets, and only a few gardens got nipped. His top bun: the warning was a trick to sell blankets. The secret sauce he never checks is that the blankets did nothing, when the blankets are exactly why so few gardens froze.

Step 2 · The kid story

The Frost That Wasn't (Or Was It?)

Aunt Rosa runs a little garden stand at the end of the block. On Tuesday she hung a sign: "Hard frost possible Friday night! Cover your tomatoes!" By Thursday she had sold every plant blanket she owned. Friday night came. On Saturday morning, only three gardens on the whole street had droopy, frozen tomato plants. Marcus put on his detective hat. "Case closed," he announced. "Almost nobody got hurt. That frost scare was baloney. Aunt Rosa just wanted to sell blankets." Priya sipped her juice box. "Marcus, how many of those gardens had blankets on them Friday night?" Marcus counted on his fingers. "Um. Most of them." "So maybe the frost came, and the blankets worked." Marcus took off the detective hat very slowly.

Step 3 · Try the model question

Marcus: Aunt Rosa warned that a hard frost might hit on Friday night, and people bought lots of her plant blankets. But only three gardens on the street were damaged. So the warning was clearly just a way to sell more blankets.

Marcus's reasoning is open to criticism on the grounds that it

Step 4 · The courtroom tale

The Lighthouse Keeper's Trial

The prosecutor pointed at the lighthouse keeper. "She warned every captain that the rocks near the cove were deadly. Then she sold harbor maps by the hundreds. And this season? Only two boats scraped those rocks. The danger was a fairy tale, invented to sell maps!" Mr. Whitfield snapped his suspenders and stood. "Your Honor, ask a simple question. Why did only two boats hit the rocks? Because nearly every captain bought a map and steered around them. The prosecutor treats the success of the warning as proof that the warning was false. That is like saying the umbrella was useless because you stayed dry." The judge nodded. "Case dismissed. And I'll take one map, please."

Step 5 · Work the real question

Open PrepTest 102, Section 2, Question 9 in your official copy from LSAC (for example in LawHub) and read it there.

Your answer

How to apply it

Find the top bun: the claim that some warning or alarm was not genuine. Find the patty: the harm turned out small, and someone made money from the response. Now ask the Most Wanted question: could the response to the warning be the reason the harm stayed small? Pick the choice that names that overlooked possibility. Skip choices that criticize moves the speaker never makes, like character attacks or circular restating.